Climate risk and response: Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts

Climate change is already having substantial physical impacts at a local level in regions across the world; the affected regions will continue to grow in number and size. Since the 1880s, the average global temperature has risen by about 1.1 degrees Celsius with significant regional variations. This brings higher probabilities of extreme temperatures and an intensification of hazards. A changing climate in the next decade, and probably beyond, means the number and size of regions affected by substantial physical impacts will continue to grow. This will have direct effects on five socioeconomic systems: livability and workability, food systems, physical assets, infrastructure services, and natural capital.

The socioeconomic impacts of climate change will likely be nonlinear as system thresholds are breached and have knock-on effects. Most of the past increase in direct impact from hazards has come from greater exposure to hazards versus increases in their mean and tail intensity. In the future, hazard intensification will likely assume a greater role. Societies and systems most at risk are close to physical and biological thresholds. For example, as heat and humidity increase in India, by 2030 under an RCP 8.5 scenario, between 160 million and 200 million people could live in regions with an average 5 percent annual probability of experiencing a heat wave that exceeds the survivability threshold for a healthy human being, absent an adaptation response. Ocean warming could reduce fish catches, affecting the livelihoods of 650 million to 800 million people who rely on fishing revenue. In Ho Chi Minh City, direct infrastructure damage from a 100-year flood could rise from about $200 million to $300 million today to $500 million to $1 billion by 2050, while knock-on costs could rise from $100 million to $400 million to between $1.5 billion and $8.5 billion

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Source: Mckinsey

Region: Global